Jonathan Mercer
Jonathan anchors US Market Current's daily session coverage, reporting on index moves, volatility, and the macro cross-currents driving American equities.
Articles by Jonathan Mercer
Stocks Snap Their Skid on Friday, but the Holiday-Shortened Week Still Ends Lower After August CPI
All four major US benchmarks closed higher Friday as crude eased and the August inflation report landed, yet every one of them finished the four-session week down. Core CPI ran hotter than the consensus Schwab cited, and futures pricing for next week's FOMC moved sharply toward a hike.
Three coupon settlements, a corporate tax date and an FOMC meeting all land on Sept. 15
Fed staff published new estimates last month for how hard Treasury settlement pushes on repo rates once reserves stop being abundant. Next Tuesday supplies the test, and the Fed will be in blackout when it happens.
Crude Jumps After U.S. Strike on Larak Island as Energy Leads a Lower Tape
U.S. Central Command said American forces hit two Iranian launchers on Larak Island; Iran struck back at bases in Jordan. Brent traded above $91 and WTI above $86 in Monday morning dealing, and energy shares were the standout sector on a broadly lower morning tape. The August monthly close is not set until 4 p.m. ET.
Treasury Doubles Long-End Liquidity Buybacks to at Least $4 Billion an Operation, Starting September 9
The Treasury Department raised the size of its nominal long-end liquidity support buyback operations from a $2 billion maximum to at least $4 billion apiece in the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year sectors, effective September 9 through November 4. Long-dated yields fell on the announcement, with wire services putting the 30-year down roughly 9 to 10 basis points on the day.
Foreign Official Flows Swung $88.3 Billion in June. The Headline TIC Number Moved $2.0 Billion.
Treasury's June capital-flows report, out at 4 p.m. Monday, showed a net TIC inflow of $133.5 billion against a May figure the same release revised to $131.5 billion. Inside that near-identical total, the official line went from a $39.9 billion outflow to a $48.4 billion inflow while private inflows fell by half. Treasury's own footnote warns that the official-private division carries a "transaction bias."
Treasury's Buyback Schedule Adds Up to Exactly $38 Billion. Two of the Operations Printed on It Don't Count.
The August refunding's buyback plan lists 18 liquidity-support operations, but only 16 belong to the new quarter, and the maximums reconcile to the dollar.
The Foreign Holdings Data Lands Monday at 4 p.m. The Line That Has Been Moving Is the Official One
Treasury publishes June's international capital data on Monday, August 17. In the current table, foreign official holdings of Treasuries have fallen to $3,848.0 billion, the lowest of the thirteen months on the page, while the headline total sits within $118.3 billion of the highest column published.
Russell 2000 Closes at a Record as the Dow Finishes the Week Alone in the Red
Small caps set a closing high on a day the other three indexes slipped. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stretched their weekly win streaks to three; the Dow did not join them.
The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Set Records in the Same Session. That Combination Deserves a Second Look
Thursday produced record closes for both the large-cap benchmark and the small-cap index, an unusual pairing given how differently the two normally respond to the same news. The mechanism connecting them was the rate path, not earnings — and inside the tape, the day was far less uniform than the index prints suggest.
Thursday's $25 Billion Bond Sale Tests Who Is Still Buying the Long End
The Treasury closes out its August refunding with a new-issue 30-year auction at 1 p.m. ET, with the long bond near a two-decade high. July's sale cleared, but on an unusually lopsided foreign bid — and July was a reopening, not a new issue.
AI server makers carry the Nasdaq to a higher close while the Dow finishes fractionally lower
Wednesday's official closing prints show a market that split inside the technology sector rather than between risk and safety, with Super Micro, Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise leading the S&P 500 and megacap software lagging.
A near-record crude inventory build collides with stalled Hormuz talks, and oil barely budges
US crude stocks rose 17.4 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly gain since January 2023, yet WTI slipped only 0.40% on Wednesday. The geopolitical bid is doing a lot of work.