July Housing Starts Due Tuesday After Builder Sentiment Ticks Up to 35 in August

by Tomas Ferreira · August 18, 2026

Markets Reporter, US Market Current

The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development will publish July 2026 data on building permits, housing starts and housing completions at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, according to the Census Bureau's economic indicator release calendar. The report arrives one day after the National Association of Home Builders said its confidence gauge improved slightly in August while remaining in territory that signals more builders rate conditions poor than good.

The June report, issued July 17, was dominated by a headline that did not describe the single-family market. Privately owned housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000 units, which the Census Bureau said was 19.0 percent (plus or minus 15.9 percent) above the revised May estimate of 1,199,000. Because the reported change was larger than its own margin of error, that monthly gain was the only percentage change in the release text that the agency did not flag as statistically inconclusive.

The composition explains most of it. Starts in buildings with five units or more were reported at an annual rate of 513,000, up 76.3 percent from May, according to the release. Single-family starts came in at 895,000, down 0.2 percent (plus or minus 10.2 percent) from May and 3.2 percent below the June 2025 pace. Multifamily starts are among the most volatile series the Census Bureau publishes, since a small number of large projects breaking ground in one month can swing the annualized rate sharply.

The forward-looking side of the June report was softer. Building permits were at an annual rate of 1,367,000, which the Census Bureau said was 3.0 percent below the revised May rate of 1,410,000 and 2.3 percent below the June 2025 rate of 1,399,000. Single-family authorizations were 871,000, down 2.4 percent from May and 0.2 percent below a year earlier. Permits for buildings with five units or more were 445,000, down 4.9 percent on the month.

Completions were mixed. Total housing completions ran at 1,392,000, up 3.3 percent (plus or minus 14.1 percent) from May and 1.5 percent (plus or minus 17.1 percent) above June 2025, with both changes carrying the Census Bureau's asterisk indicating the agency could not determine whether the underlying change differed from zero. Single-family completions were 964,000, up 6.6 percent from May and 5.5 percent from a year earlier, adding to the stock of finished new homes competing for buyers.

The pipeline figures give some sense of how much construction activity is already committed. The June release put total housing units under construction at a seasonally adjusted 1,264,000, of which 582,000 were single-family. Units authorized but not yet started stood at 257,000, including 110,000 in the multifamily category. Those permitted-but-unbroken projects are a reservoir that can either convert into starts or expire, depending on financing costs and expected absorption.

The margin-of-error convention matters for reading Tuesday's numbers. Census attaches 90 percent confidence intervals to the starts and completions estimates and marks with an asterisk any change whose interval includes zero, meaning the direction of the move cannot be established from the sample alone. In June, the year-over-year change in total starts, reported as 3.5 percent (plus or minus 14.3 percent), carried that mark. A single month rarely establishes a turn in this series.

Monday's builder survey provides the closest thing to a real-time read on the industry's own assessment. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 35 in August from 34 in July, according to NAHB. Any reading below 50 means more respondents describe conditions as poor than good, and the index has been below that line for an extended stretch.

Beneath the headline, only one of the three components moved. The gauge of current single-family sales conditions rose two points to 39. The measure of sales expectations over the next six months held at 43, and the index of prospective buyer traffic held at 23, NAHB reported. In the July survey, published July 16, the three components were 37, 43 and 23 respectively.

Discounting remained widespread but did not intensify. NAHB said 35 percent of builders reported cutting prices in August, down from 37 percent in July, with the average reduction holding at 6 percent. The share offering some form of sales incentive was 63 percent, unchanged from the prior month. Price cuts and incentives absorb builder margin rather than showing up in list prices, which is one reason official new-home price measures can understate what buyers are actually paying.

NAHB Chairman Bill Owens said in the association's release that builders continue to face high construction costs and broader economic uncertainty even with sentiment edging higher, and NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted that August was the 16th consecutive month in which at least 30 percent of builders reported cutting prices to support demand, and the 16th straight month with the index below 40. Both attributions are paraphrased from the association's published commentary.

Regional readings, which NAHB reports as three-month moving averages, showed the widest gap between the interior and the Sun Belt. The Midwest stood at 45 and the Northeast at 44 in the August release, while the South was at 31 and the West at 27. The South accounts for the largest share of national single-family construction, so weakness there carries more weight in the aggregate starts figures than its index level alone suggests.

Financing costs have been roughly flat. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of August 13 put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.67 percent, down from 6.69 percent a week earlier and above the 6.58 percent reading a year ago. The 15-year fixed rate was 5.96 percent, down from 6.01 percent the prior week and up from 5.71 percent a year earlier. Freddie Mac described rates as relatively stable on the week.

The Treasury curve backed up modestly to start the week. Treasury Department par yield curve data showed the 10-year note at 4.72 percent on Monday, up from 4.68 percent on Friday, with the 30-year bond at 5.31 percent versus 5.25 percent and the two-year at 4.19 percent. Long-dated yields are the more direct input into mortgage pricing, and the 30-year point has risen from 5.23 percent at the start of the month.

Tuesday's housing data will not be the only release. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to publish its G.17 report on industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m. Eastern time, and minutes of the July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting are set for release at 2 p.m. Wednesday, according to the Board of Governors' August calendar.

What the July construction report can establish is narrow but useful: whether the multifamily surge that drove June's headline persisted or reversed, and whether single-family permits extended their decline. What it cannot establish, on one month of sampled data with wide confidence intervals, is a change in trend. Readers should check the asterisks in the release before treating any percentage change as a signal.