Nvidia reports after Wednesday's close against a $91.0bn guide, with options pricing a 5.4% move

by Ryo Tanaka · August 26, 2026

Technology Reporter, US Market Current

Nvidia is scheduled to report results for the second quarter of its fiscal 2027 year after the close of trading on Wednesday, Aug. 26. Nothing about those results has been published, and the numbers that matter most will not exist publicly until the release crosses. What does exist is the bar the company set for itself three months ago, and the arithmetic that bar implies.

In the release accompanying its fiscal first-quarter results on May 20, Nvidia guided second-quarter revenue to $91.0 billion, plus or minus 2 percent. It guided GAAP gross margin to 74.9 percent and non-GAAP gross margin to 75.0 percent, each plus or minus 50 basis points. The company also stated in that outlook that it was not assuming any data center compute revenue from China.

The first quarter itself, which ended April 26, 2026, produced revenue of $81.6 billion, up 20 percent sequentially and 85 percent from a year earlier. Data Center revenue was $75.2 billion, up 21 percent from the prior quarter and 92 percent year over year. Edge Computing, the company's other reported revenue line, contributed $6.4 billion, up 10 percent sequentially and 29 percent year over year. GAAP gross margin came in at 74.9 percent and non-GAAP gross margin at 75.0 percent. GAAP diluted earnings per share were $2.39; non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $1.87.

Put the last three data points in sequence and the shape of the guide becomes clearer. Revenue went from $68.1 billion in the January quarter to $81.6 billion in the April quarter, a step up of about $13.5 billion by this publication's calculation. The July-quarter guide of $91.0 billion implies a smaller sequential increase of roughly $9.4 billion on the same arithmetic. In percentage terms the guide implies growth in the low double digits sequentially, against the 20 percent sequential gains the company reported in each of the two preceding quarters.

At its most recent print the company landed above its own guide. Its fiscal fourth-quarter release on Feb. 25 guided the April quarter to $78.0 billion, plus or minus 2 percent; the quarter came in at $81.6 billion, roughly $3.6 billion above the midpoint by this publication's calculation. That is a fact about one prior quarter, not a forecast about this one.

For context on scale, Nvidia reported full fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65 percent from the prior year, with GAAP gross margin for the year of 71.1 percent and non-GAAP gross margin of 71.3 percent. Fiscal 2026 GAAP diluted earnings per share were $4.90 and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $4.77. Quarterly gross margins in the mid-70s through the first half of fiscal 2027 sit well above that full-year figure.

The forward guide is conventionally the part of a Nvidia release that moves the tape hardest, because it is the company's own statement about the October quarter rather than a description of a quarter already banked. Nvidia issues that outlook as a point estimate with a stated 2 percent band, along with gross margin and operating expense guidance, in the same press release as the results.

The options market is pricing a smaller reaction than it has in the recent past. Option Research & Technology Services, the options analytics firm known as ORATS, put the implied move at about 5.4 percent in either direction after the print, equivalent to roughly $280 billion of market capitalization, according to a report by Fiona Craig published on Yahoo Finance at 6:45 a.m. Eastern on Aug. 26. ORATS also put the swing priced ahead of the May report at 6.5 percent and the stock's average post-earnings move across the previous twelve quarters at 7.4 percent, both above the current reading.

Matt Amberson, founder of ORATS, was quoted in that report saying, "That shows some complacency for Nvidia, and it means it's getting more predictable."

Chris Murphy of Susquehanna, quoted in the same report, framed the compression as a change in the character of the event: "I think the beginning of the AI era when Nvidia was surprising everybody with the huge earnings beats and 10, 15, 20 percent moves, that's kind of over."

Will Sterling of TritonPoint Wealth, also quoted there, tied the read-through to customer spending plans rather than to Nvidia's own line items, saying the outcome "will dictate whether or not they continue to invest with their capex."

The release lands into a session whose macro tone was set hours earlier by the 8:30 a.m. data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that core PCE prices rose 0.2 percent in July and 3.3 percent from a year earlier, and that second-quarter real GDP was unrevised at a 1.5 percent annual rate. The Census Bureau's advance durable goods report showed new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, the closest monthly proxy for business equipment investment, up just 0.2 percent in July after 1.7 percent in June.

Tuesday, Aug. 25 was the last completed session before the report. The Nasdaq Composite closed that day at 26,151.30, up 171.11 points or 0.66 percent, and the S&P 500 closed at 7,677.28, up 24.42 points or 0.32 percent. Wednesday's session remained open as of roughly 11:20 a.m. Eastern; no closing level for the day had been set. Results will be published after the close, and until then any figure attributed to the quarter is an estimate rather than a reported number.